They're calling it El Sackico, and nobody at Old Trafford is laughing. Manchester United are 12th with five points from five games and haven't won in the league since Bruno Fernandes's hat-trick against Ipswich. Tottenham are bottom on two points, still without a league win, and both of their league goals came in the 3–2 home defeat to Aston Villa. Michael Carrick and Roberto De Zerbi meet at 17:30 on Saturday, and one of them is going to have a very long Sunday.
The international break did both men a favour. For three weeks the Man City verdict took up all the oxygen, and nobody was talking about either of them. That's over now. The United rooms are calling it a must-win against the worst team in the league. The Spurs rooms reckon United are just as fragile, and two of them are tipping a first league win of the season.
"It is curtains"
United Stand's afternoon show comes from Hotel Football, and Beth opens on the ESPN report from Rob Dawson. The gist: there's no appetite to remove Carrick, but the club needs Champions League money, and if top four drifts out of sight the board might have to act anyway. Then she brings up Arsenal. Mikel Arteta has just signed a new deal, she points out, and Arsenal only got there by sticking with him through the bad years. Would United fans give Carrick three years, no matter what?
She isn't sure herself. The squad is thin, the summer budget was tight and the front three isn't working. She reads out an Athletic stat that since Carrick replaced Ruben Amorim, United have made their subs later on average than every Premier League side except Bournemouth and Everton. Her live poll on Carrick's biggest problem comes back 49% tactics, 23% player performances, 22% recruitment and 6% subs. Kobbie Mainoo, she says, is the only player who went into the break with his head held high. The verdict on Saturday is blunt. Lose at home to De Zerbi's Spurs, who haven't won a league game all season, "it is curtains".
Two clubs, one combined XI
United View do something you hardly ever see on a United channel and pick a combined XI with a Spurs fan, Kish from Lilywhite Lab. Flex's explanation is the best line of the week. "We couldn't even do a combined 11 with Brighton." Spurs are the one side United can do it with now, because "I feel like we're kind of even." He's also not pretending it's a glamour tie. To some people, he says, this is "the graveyard shift of the Premier League".
The team they agree on is pretty generous to Spurs. Senne Lammens in goal, Pedro Porro at right-back, Micky van de Ven next to Lisandro Martínez, and Luke Shaw or Destiny Udogie at left-back because they can't settle it. Mateus Fernandes and Mainoo in midfield, Bruno in the ten, Mohammed Kudus on the right, Bryan Mbeumo up top and Matheus Cunha on the left. Kish is honest about Spurs. The results have been "a disaster", but he doesn't see a team that could actually go down. Then Flex asks the killer question. Who'd you rather have managing this XI? "I don't know." Neither of them answers.
Baleba's moment
United Community calls it a must-win and says Carrick has four big weeks before the next break. The board are backing him for now, and he thinks that's right, but the patience Carrick earned with his interim run "is starting to be reeled in". The good news is Carlos Baleba. The summer signing has been playing behind closed doors at Carrington, and he looks ready to make his debut.
His XI is a statement. Leny Yoro comes in for Harry Maguire after a strong international break. Mainoo and Baleba start together in midfield. Shea Lacey gets a Premier League start on the right, which lets Mbeumo play through the middle while Benjamin Šeško's shin keeps him out. Cunha goes back to the left. The bit Spurs fans won't enjoy is his read on them. Spurs have looked decent in spells, he says, but when they go a goal down, "it's over for them". He goes 3–1 United: Bruno once, Mbeumo twice.
"Just as vulnerable as we are"
HenryTalksTottenham has been quiet for a couple of weeks and comes back swinging. He asked Rory Jennings who's under more pressure, Carrick or De Zerbi, and they both said Carrick. He also brings up the recent history: the Europa League final, the 6–1 under José Mourinho, plenty of good days at Old Trafford. "This isn't a Man United side that are strong. They are just as vulnerable as we are right now."
He's less sure about his own back line. If Van de Ven and Jan Paul van Hecke both miss out, his predicted defence "looks a disaster waiting to happen". Mateus Fernandes has to play in midfield, which he calls "non-negotiable". He's also running out of patience with Dominic Solanke. He doesn't want De Zerbi sacked and thinks the next run of games can turn it around. He goes for a scrappy 1–0 to Spurs.
Thanks, City
Married To Tottenham open with the best gag of the lot. They're not saying the loser definitely gets sacked, "but somebody's post-match interview is going to be awkward." Their theory is that the City verdict was the best thing that could have happened to both managers, because it gave them three weeks out of the headlines. "Thanks, cheaters. Appreciate you."
Then they get tactical, and they really fancy it. United's midfield is "like a super tanker" that can't turn quickly. They want Kudus and Omar Marmoush, with Andy Robertson overlapping, getting in behind Diogo Dalot. The aim is to turn Old Trafford into "a theatre of nightmares". Solanke gets a kicking, with "three months to save his job". They're worried about Bruno, and about Mbeumo running into the space Robertson leaves behind him. The predictions are bold. Amy goes 1–0 Spurs, and her co-host goes 2–0 with a clean sheet, though he admits that three weeks ago he thought they'd lose.
The nervous one
Sarah Spurs From The Stands is the voice for every Spurs fan who isn't buying the optimism. She remembers fans leaving the Villa game at 3–0 down and says she isn't confident about anything right now. Her community poll got about 200 votes. 37% can't see Spurs winning, 28% would take a draw and roughly 35% think Spurs nick it. She's been saying De Zerbi needs ten games before anyone judges him, and she admits this is "not exactly an easy fixture".
Her worry is the back line. She'd actually miss Van Hecke more than Van de Ven, because he's the better passer and the more vocal one. She wants Solanke to take his chances, James Maddison to start and Dejan Kulusevski to get a short cameo. She also has a dark little thank-you for City, who were found guilty at exactly the right time: "if it weren't for Man City, the whole international break would have been absolutely berating us for being 20th."
Who blinks first?
Take away the jokes and both sets of rooms are making the same argument from opposite ends. The United channels say this is the bottom side, at home, and anything other than a win puts Carrick in real trouble. The Spurs channels say United are a soft touch at the moment, the break has reset everyone, and this is the right fixture to finally get a win. United Community has 3–1. Two Spurs rooms are tipping a Spurs win, while Sarah's poll is split down the middle.
The Opta supercomputer gives United a home win in 54.1% of its simulations. That's not much comfort for a manager who's been told it's Champions League or bust. At 17:30 on Saturday, one of the two managers gets some breathing room. The other one gets El Sackico.